City of London Oli Scarff/Getty Images

Remettre sur pied les incitations aux investissement fixes

LONDRES – En février dernier, j'ai remarqué que l'économie mondiale à la fin de l'année 2016 était dans une situation conjoncturelle plus forte que celle majoritairement attendue, étant donné les bouleversements politiques qui ont eu lieu au cours des 12 derniers mois. Cette tendance à la hausse s'est maintenue jusqu'au premier trimestre 2017. Selon les derniers indicateurs de type « nowcast » (prévisions à très court terme), la croissance du PIB mondial est supérieure à 4 %, soit peut-être la plus forte performance depuis avant la crise financière de 2008.

Pourtant certains observateurs (et pas seulement les pessimistes chroniques), ont établi que les preuves restent anecdotiques et qu'il est impossible de prédire la durée du moment économique actuel. En effet, durant la reprise qui a suivi la crise de 2008, il y a eu d'autres périodes de relance de la croissance, qui ont fini par s'essouffler rapidement et par redevenir calmes.

Pour soutenir la croissance économique à long terme, les investissements des entreprises vont devoir augmenter. Malheureusement cela est plus facile à dire qu'à faire. Dans les pays occidentaux en particulier, les investissements en capital fixe dans le secteur non résidentiel ont été précisément le facteur manquant dans les précédents cycles d'accélération de courte durée.

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