City of London Oli Scarff/Getty Images

解决固定资产投资激励的问题

伦敦—2月份时,我注意到,考虑到此前12个月的政治剧变, 2016年底全球经济处于比许多人所预料的更强的周期位置。这一上扬之势贯穿了2017年一季度。据最新“临近预报”型指标,世界GDP增长将超过4%——也许是自2008年金融危机前夕以来最强劲的经济表现。

但是,一些观察者——而不仅仅是一贯的悲观派——反驳说证据仍然只是偶然的,无法预测当前经济状况会持续多久。确实,2008年以来的漫长复苏中出现过几次增长反弹,但最后都快速湮灭,回归停滞。

要提振长期经济增长,商业投资必须增加。不幸的是,这说起来容易做起来难。特别是西方经济体,非住宅固定投资正是此前短暂的加速周期中所缺失的因素。

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