NEWPORT BEACH – As the fifth anniversary of the disorderly collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers approaches, some analysts will revisit the causes of an historic global “sudden stop” that resulted in enormous economic and financial disruptions. Others will describe the consequences of an event that continues to produce considerable human suffering. And some will share personal experiences of a terrifying time for the global economy and for them personally (as policymakers, financial-market participants, and in their everyday lives).
As interesting as these contributions will be, I hope that we will also see another genre: analyses of the previously unthinkable outcomes that have become reality – with profound implications for current and future generations – and that our systems of governance have yet to address properly. With this in mind, let me offer four.
The first such outcome, and by far the most consequential, is the continuing difficulty that Western economies face in generating robust economic growth and sufficient job creation. Notwithstanding the initial sharp drop in GDP in the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, too many Western economies have yet to rebound properly, let alone sustain growth rates that would make up fully for lost jobs and income. More generally, only a few have decisively overcome the trifecta of maladies that the crisis exposed: inadequate and unbalanced aggregate demand, insufficient structural resilience and agility, and persistent debt overhangs.
The net result goes beyond the weak growth, worsening income inequality, high long-term unemployment, and alarming youth joblessness of the here and now. Five years after the global financial crisis, too many countries are being held back by exhausted and out-dated growth engines. As a result, prospects for a rapid, durable, and inclusive economic recovery remain a serious concern.