雷曼兄弟的坏遗产

纽波特海滩—随着投资银行雷曼兄弟公司无序倒闭五周年的临近,一些分析家将重温这一引起巨大经济和金融乱象的历史性的全球“停摆”的原因。也有人将描述这一至今仍在造成巨大人道灾难的事件的后果。还有一些人会分享全球经济可怕时刻(也是对决策者、金融市场参与者及其日常生活的个人可怕时刻)的个人经验。

这些见解都将十分有趣,但我希望我们可以看到另一个角度:分析此前不可想象但最后成为现实——并对当前和子孙后代造成了深远影响——且我们的治理体系至今仍无法合理处置的结果。出于这一目的,我提供四点分析。

第一个结果,也是目前后果最严重的一个,是西方经济体在产生鲁棒经济增长和充分就业创造方面遇到的持续困难。尽管最初的GDP大幅下降发生在2008年四季度和2009年一季度,但许多西方经济体至今仍没能很好地恢复,更不用说维持能全面恢复失去的就业岗位和收入的增长率了。更一般地,只有少数国家决定性地克服了危机所暴露的三重困境——总需求不足和失衡、机构性恢复力和灵活性的缺失,以及持久的债务积压。

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