Il ribilanciamento della Cina

PECHINO – Il XII Piano quinquennale della Cina richiede una transizione del modello economico del Paese, da una crescita trainata dall’export verso una crescita basata sulla domanda interna, soprattutto sui consumi delle famiglie. Da quando è stato introdotto il Piano, il surplus di parte corrente cinese in rapporto al Pil si è effettivamente ridotto. Ma questo significa che l’aggiustamento della Cina è sulla buona strada?

Secondo il Fmi, il calo del rapporto tra il surplus di parte corrente e il Pil della Cina è in gran parte il risultato degli elevati livelli di investimento, della debole situazione globale e di un rialzo nei prezzi delle importazioni di materie prime che ha superato l’aumento dei prezzi dei beni industriali cinesi. Quindi il calo evidenziato nel rapporto tra il surplus esterno e il Pil della Cina non rappresenta un “ribilanciamento” economico, anzi il Fondo prevede che il rapporto risalirà rapidamente nel 2013 fino a raggiungere il livello pre-crisi.

La spiegazione del Fmi in merito al recente calo del rapporto tra il surplus di parte corrente e il Pil della Cina è ampiamente corretta. L’esperienza suggerisce che la posizione esterna della Cina sia altamente sensibile alle condizioni globali, con il rapporto surplus-Pil in aumento durante i tempi di boom per l’economia mondiale e in calo durante i periodi di crisi. Il malessere dell’Europa ha colpito duramente le esportazioni cinesi e senza dubbio rappresenta il fattore più importante alla base dell’attuale riduzione del rapporto surplus-Pil.

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