Le rééquilibrage de la Chine

PEKIN – le 12ème plan quinquennal de la Chine appelle à une évolution dans le modèle économique du pays pour passer d’une croissance portée par les exportations vers un modèle plus axé sur la demande intérieure, particulièrement la consommation des ménages. Depuis la mise en place du plan, le compte courant de la Chine en part de PIB a en effet chuté. Mais cela signifie-t-il que l’ajustement de la Chine est en bonne voie ?

Selon le FMI, la baisse du rapport excédent de compte courant/PIB de la Chine est en grande partie due à un niveau élevé des investissements, un environnement global affaibli et une hausse des prix des biens importés qui ont augmenté plus rapidement que le prix des biens manufacturés chinois. Donc la baisse du rapport excédent extérieur/PIB ne traduit pas un « rééquilibrage » économique ; au contraire, le Fonds Monétaire prévoit un rebond de ce rapport en 2013 avant un retour à son niveau d’avant la crise.

Selon le FMI, la chute récente du rapport excédent de compte courant/PIB est globalement normale. Historiquement, on constate que la position extérieure de la Chine est très sensible aux conditions globales, avec un rapport excédent/PIB en augmentation lors des périodes de boom dans l’économie mondiale et en chute dans les périodes de ralentissement. Le malaise de l’Europe a durement frappé les exportations chinoises, et est indubitablement le facteur le plus important dans la baisse de ce taux.

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