Paul Lachine

Cinco pasos adelante en 2011

MILÁN – Lo peor de la crisis financiera y económica parece haber terminado. Los mercados de activos tuvieron un desempeño razonablemente bueno en 2010. En los Estados Unidos y algunas partes de Europa el crecimiento reinició. El desapalancamiento del sector privado continuó, pero tuvo como contrapeso niveles crecientes de deuda y déficits en el sector público. Además, el crecimiento de los mercados emergentes regresó a los niveles previos a la crisis y parece ser sostenible, apoyado por políticas heterodoxas diseñadas para “esterilizar” las entradas masivas de capital.

Sin embargo, el crecimiento alto sostenido en los mercados emergentes depende de evitar una segunda gran desaceleración en las economías avanzadas, que siguen absorbiendo una parte significativa (aunque en declive) de sus exportaciones. El crecimiento lento es manejable, pero el crecimiento negativo no lo es.

Por consiguiente, para las economías emergentes el riesgo de que empeore la situación de las economías avanzadas y los efectos de cascada de sus políticas de recuperación son temas principales de inquietud. En varios países desarrollados, incluidos los Estados Unidos, las perspectivas de crecimiento y empleo empiezan a divergir ampliamente poniendo en riesgo la cohesión social y la apertura económica.

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