Paul Lachine

Cinq étapes pour 2011

MILAN – Le pire de la crise économique et financière semble être passé. Les marchés d’actifs se sont raisonnablement bien comportés en 2010. Les Etats-Unis et une partie de l’Europe ont renoué avec la croissance. Le désendettement du secteur privé se poursuit, mais est contrebalancé par des déficits et un endettement croissants du secteur public. La croissance des marchés émergents s’est quant à elle rétablie aux niveaux d’avant la crise et semble être durable, grâce à des politiques non orthodoxes destinées à « stériliser » les afflux massifs de capitaux.

Mais pour que les pays émergents continuent à bénéficier d’une croissance forte, il faut que les économies avancées, qui continuent à absorber une partie importante (quoiqu’en déclin) de leurs exportations, ne subissent pas une nouvelle récession importante. Une croissance anémique est gérable. Une croissance négative, ou récession, ne l’est pas.

Les risques récessionnistes des pays avancés et les retombées économiques de leurs politiques de relance sont donc les principales préoccupations des économies émergentes. Dans plusieurs économies avancées, dont les Etats-Unis, les perspectives de croissance et de l’emploi commencent à diverger fortement, mettant en péril la cohésion sociale et l’ouverture économique.

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  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
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    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

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