Paul Lachine

Cinq étapes pour 2011

MILAN – Le pire de la crise économique et financière semble être passé. Les marchés d’actifs se sont raisonnablement bien comportés en 2010. Les Etats-Unis et une partie de l’Europe ont renoué avec la croissance. Le désendettement du secteur privé se poursuit, mais est contrebalancé par des déficits et un endettement croissants du secteur public. La croissance des marchés émergents s’est quant à elle rétablie aux niveaux d’avant la crise et semble être durable, grâce à des politiques non orthodoxes destinées à « stériliser » les afflux massifs de capitaux.

Mais pour que les pays émergents continuent à bénéficier d’une croissance forte, il faut que les économies avancées, qui continuent à absorber une partie importante (quoiqu’en déclin) de leurs exportations, ne subissent pas une nouvelle récession importante. Une croissance anémique est gérable. Une croissance négative, ou récession, ne l’est pas.

Les risques récessionnistes des pays avancés et les retombées économiques de leurs politiques de relance sont donc les principales préoccupations des économies émergentes. Dans plusieurs économies avancées, dont les Etats-Unis, les perspectives de croissance et de l’emploi commencent à diverger fortement, mettant en péril la cohésion sociale et l’ouverture économique.

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