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Оптимизм для Нового года

Jan 4, 2021 Jeffrey D. Sachs

НЬЮ-ЙОРК – Год 2020-й был мучительным: пандемия Covid-19, экономический спад во всём мире, повсеместные катастрофы из-за изменений климата, непрерывные социальные беспорядки, даже лживые утверждения президента США Дональда Трампа о масштабных фальсификациях на выборах и призывы его сторонников ввести военное положение. Но несмотря на эти мрачные новости, минувший год принёс нам и несколько весомых причин для оптимизма. В наступившем году мы сможем заложить фундамент для новой эры устойчивого развития, мира и сотрудничества.

Первой причиной для оптимизма стал успех многих стран в борьбе с Covid-19. Страны Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона, причём крайне различные культурно и политически (в их числе Австралия, Китай, Южная Корея, Лаос, Новая Зеландия и Вьетнам), применяли эффективные медицинские стратегии для обуздания пандемии. Так же поступали некоторые страны и в других регионах, в том числе в Африке южнее Сахары. Хотя в новостях доминировали сообщения о катастрофических ошибках в борьбе с пандемией в США и Европе, успехи стран Азиатско-Тихоокеанского и других регионов демонстрируют, как можно решать серьёзные, неотложные проблемы, благодаря сочетанию качественного государственного управления, ответственного поведения граждан и политических действий на основе фактов.

Вторая причина для оптимизма – появление новых вакцин, которые не только дают большую надежду на спасение жизней и победу над вирусом, но и стали демонстрацией силы современной науки, способной на технологические прорывы за рекордно короткое время. Разработка вакцин стала образцом подхода по принципу «выполнения миссии» к управлению разработками и исследованиями в рамках частно-государственного сотрудничества. Такой же подход по принципу выполнения миссии надо применять и к решению других глобальных проблем, в том числе стимулируя переход к возобновляемой энергетике, устойчивому сельскому хозяйству, а также защищая биоразнообразие.

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Jeffrey D. Sachs

Writing for PS since 1995
330 Commentaries

Jeffrey D. Sachs, Professor of Sustainable Development and Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University, is Director of Columbia’s Center for Sustainable Development and the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. He has served as Special Adviser to three UN Secretaries-General. His books include The End of Poverty, Common Wealth, The Age of Sustainable Development, Building the New American Economy, and most recently, A New Foreign Policy: Beyond American Exceptionalism.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 18 Comments on this article

Rob MacIver Jan 7, 2021

We must not forget or leave behind the millions of people whose work is in the "real world" and cannot be moved online as so many of us are privileged to do.
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F Ahmed Jan 7, 2021

By the UN own admission, conflicts have increased three-folds in recent years, an unprecedented 80 million people are forcibly displaced today, human rights continue to be pummeled in far too many places in both democracies and non-democracies, SDGs (UN sustainable development agenda) that were not faring that well before COVID-19 face immense obstacles with between 60 - 120 million more people facing poverty. To talk only about one UN Organ - the Security Council, it remains a P5 club essentially, failing to solve or prevent conflicts and safeguarding its big guns' favorite horses, often in complete disregard to the Charter principles and international law. Even a poor talking shop these days.
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F Ahmed Jan 7, 2021

Mr Sachs, what UN strong performance in which world is being referred to here? Yes the UN has potential but it largely failed on its peace and security, human rights and development fronts. As someone who has worked in the UN inter-governmental system extensively, your unqualified praise for the UN leadership also glosses over the imperative of much needed reform in its management. Optimism is good when backed with fact based reasoning.
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Michael Public Jan 5, 2021

Pollyanna herself would be proud of this paragraph. If anything, the rivalry between China, the US and Russia is set to increase and become uglier. The World's problems can not be wished away with the wave of a hand as the author is trying here and as Neville Chamberlain found out at the start of WW2.
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Michael Public Jan 5, 2021

Catholicism is a dying dinosaur that has not advanced since Thomas Aquinas. What does Joe Rogen or PewDiePie have to say?
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Michael Public Jan 5, 2021

No need to Romanticize. The Ancients Greek Philoshers also believed the sun went around the earth, that phlegm caused your personal temperament and that we came from a sunken Island called Atlantis.
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Michael Public Jan 5, 2021

Attributing peace to the UN is like attributing rain to a rain dance - severely lacking in causality. Peace happens with major nations because of nuclear weapons. Peace happens with minor nations because of the severe cost of fighting guerilla wars after the intital invasion has occured. I might add the Azerbaijan invaded Armernia this year but I guess anything that happens in Russias neighbourhood is not part of "the World".
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Michael Public Jan 5, 2021

Trump was soundly defeated because he is a clown. The Republicans will be back in force in four years and I am not talking about the Romney types - I am talking about those wearing red MAGA hats.
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Michael Public Jan 5, 2021

"...including in Sub-Saharan Africa." The author is being loose with facts here. In these regions the disease went into retreat not because of any concerted action, but because its r value went negative as near/all of the people who are super spreaders had already gotten it thanks to near non-existant compliance among poorer 90%. Additionally the median age in this region is 18 years old so most simply have no symptoms as they spread it around. If you walk on the streets here you will see well less than 10% mask wearing compliance using public transport, social distancing is all but ignored and hand washing is only happening in shopping centers/workplaces because of owner enforcement. When the new variant arrived its r went rapidly positive again thanks to its increased viral power.
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Mirek Fatyga Jan 4, 2021

I do not think there can be real optimism until everyone in the political and economic domain develops a meaningful commitment to the truth. Truth, the whole Truth and only the Truth, so help you whatever you believe in that gives you your moral backbone, even if it is just a self preservation instinct.

The People of the US, and the world with them, are currently witnessing a terrifying demonstration of what sustained political lying leads to. It leads straight to Fascism, which is a political method based on deliberate incitement of public emotions for political gain and deliberate denigration of the truth, and those saying the truth, when the truth does not fit the fascist narrative. This spectacle is particularly terrifying in the country with 5800 nuclear warheads, 11 aircraft carriers, 71 submarines, and so many other weapons that it makes no sense to enumerate them all. A willingness to use these weapons liberally should conclude the litany of horrors.

To return to the truth, one needs to first understand the primary drivers of the world economy. By my personal reckoning, the primary factor, hands down, are consequences of the population growth throughout the XXth Century, which is slowing down in this Century, but still has enough momentum to bring the total population to ~10 billion people. What are the consequences?

A simple calculation ,after ~10 minutes of googling, will show the magnitude of this problem. To bring US level of oil consumption to 8 billion people, the world oil production would have to increase by ~600%. To the EU level, which is weighed down by poorer members and shorter distances, by "only" ~300%. This is just one resource, though an important one. Current Western Civilization is, essentially, a temporary, dynamic pattern on the flow of energy, much of which is derived from burning oil.

Resource scarcity has different effects in different countries. In the "West" it causes downward pressure on living standards, particularly painful for the working class, additionally aggravated by automation and political mismanagement. In the developing countries it puts a lid on the development, freezing inequality which may lead to disappointment and social unrest.

These trends are exploited by assorted sociopaths on the political "Right" who invent scapegoats and engage in classic fascist politics. Trump, Le Pen, Farage are just examples, there are more now and more to come. Countering these trends on the Right with truth, as to where we stand as species, needs to be an imperative for anyone who is in a position to publicly speak about Economics. It is not about the "Rise of China". It is about "Rise of Everyone", or at least an ambition to rise. Resource scarcity drives the present world, not just ambitions of rival superpowers. This may be a scary message, but also a unifying one. It is not the fault of the Jews after all. Globalization is more important than ever, because the alternative is wars over resources, with nukes at the ready. The way out is ingenuity and technological development that often has to be fostered by government policy and should engender international cooperation. We are all affected.

The political Left, unfortunately, harbors it's own deceptions. There is more than one, but the most destructive is the "climate change". Obviously, the climate changes constantly and we are affected by these changes. However, changes are not dominated by carbon dioxide. Claims that the "planet is burning" because of us are fraudulent and not supported by evidence. There is no space to go into details here, but they can be obtained quite readily if one looks at the evidence without prior prejudice. The irony is that solutions to resource scarcity are similar to "solutions" to alleged global warming. They require the development of new ways of generating useful energy, which are not fossil fuels. We do not need to abandon fossil fuels but we do need to radically augment them, because there are not enough fossil fuels to go around.

Truth will set us free and will give us a fighting chance. On the other side of the Truth lies Fascism and war. Fascism almost always ends in war and a major war today could very well the last one for the industrial civilization.

Happy New Year
- Michael Public Jan 5, 2021
  
  I am 100% behind this statement - this is where to start fixing the entire system. But I don't think that the leaders will find a new love for the truth unless the whole system incentivises it. The part of the system that incentivises truth over lies is investigative journalism - whose collossal problem is that it got defunded in the 1990's thanks to 'the Internet'. To get it back we need a new funding model - if none can be found they must be paid for with a general tax.
  - Edwin Hoffman Jan 5, 2021
    
    Investigative journalism killed by the internet? Resurrected with a tax? Ludicrous in an age where production is decentralized and democratized through mobile devices, live-streams, etc. Eliminate anonymity, sock puppetry, and the corporate media - the corruption - and you are left with a pure, if not honest material, often in real time.
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Edwin Hoffman Jan 4, 2021

I can see why fascist billionaires would be optimistic. Much of the world’s population is living under confinement and medical malpractice waiting for your God awful “Great Reset”. What good can come from such a massive and obvious fraud? Transhumanism? The likelihood of global war increases by the day as well. You can’t kick the habit. Sorry, but we need to be realists, based upon the design that has been made clear.
- Michael Public Jan 5, 2021
  
  "fascist billionaires" You need to dial your Time Machine back to 2020 - you seem to have accidentally sent it to 1930? Check the dials again.
  - Edwin Hoffman Jan 5, 2021
    
    Reading excerpts from your nine entries on this page alone, I think we both know that’s not true.
    
    But if you are sincere, there is quite a growing bibliography.
    
    https://winteroak.org.uk/2020/10/05/klaus-schwab-and-his-great-fascist-reset/
    
    https://mises.org/wire/united-nations-and-origins-great-reset
    
    https://ayavela.medium.com/china-and-the-great-reset-f111d297853c
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