El agujero fiscal de Europa

BRUSELAS – El Fondo Monetario Internacional ahora estima un riesgo de deflación del 30% en la eurozona, y las cifras de crecimiento dentro de la unión monetaria siguen decepcionando. Pero los responsables de las políticas parecen atrapados en un embrollo de restricciones económicas, políticas y legales que impiden una acción efectiva. El cumplimiento de las reglas en materia de políticas parece imposible sin crecimiento, pero el crecimiento parece imposible si no se quiebran las reglas. 

El ministro de Finanzas alemán, Wolfgang Schäuble, está comprometido políticamente a superar el difícil marco fiscal doméstico de su país a fin de garantizar lo que él llama un presupuesto de “cero estructural”. El gobierno francés está dedicado a recuperar la credibilidad en cuanto a las promesas de reforma hechas a cambio de demoras en el ajuste fiscal, e Italia, con una de las cargas de deuda más altas de la eurozona, tiene poco espacio para utilizar una política fiscal. Mientras tanto, el Banco Central Europeo está limitado por las dudas sobre la legalidad de su esquema de “transacciones monetarias directas” (OMT por su sigla en inglés) –compras de bonos soberanos que podrían resultar en una política fiscal redistributiva.

En un momento en que todas las reglas apuntan hacia una recesión, ¿cómo puede Europa impulsar una recuperación?

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