Il Buco Fiscale dell’Europa

BRUSSELS – Il Fondo Monetario Internazionale oggi stima, nella zona euro, un rischio di deflazione del 30%, e i dati della crescita all’interno dell’unione monetaria continuano a deludere. Ma i politici sembrano intrappolati in una complessa quantità di vincoli economici, politici e giuridici che impediscono azioni efficaci. Senza crescita sembra sia impossibile l’adempimento delle regole di politica comunitaria, ma la crescita sembra impossibile senza l’infrazione delle regole.

Il ministro delle Finanze tedesco Wolfgang Schäuble è politicamente impegnato a superare nel suo paese il difficile quadro fiscale nazionale per garantire quello che lui chiama “black zero” budget, un bilancio “a disavanzo zero”. Il governo francese, per recuperare credibilità, sta lavorando sulle promesse di riforma fatte in cambio dei ritardi nel risanamento dei conti pubblici, e l’Italia, con uno onere di indebitamento tra i più alti della zona euro, ha poco margine di manovra nell’utilizzo delle politiche fiscali. Nel contempo, la Banca Centrale Europea è vincolata dai dubbi sulla legalità del proprio programma di “transazioni monetarie definitive” (OMT) – acquisti di titoli sovrani che potrebbero portare a una politica fiscale redistributiva.

Con tutte le regole che puntano verso la recessione, come si può stimolare la ripresa in Europa?

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