Demise of austerity Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

La disparition en douceur de l'austérité

LONDRES – Cela fait plusieurs années que les décideurs discutent sérieusement du bien-fondé de l'austérité budgétaire. Les débats sur les avantages potentiels des mesures de relance pour encourager la croissance économique à court terme, ou sur la menace de dette publique à un niveau qui risque d'inhiber la croissance à moyen terme, sont passés de mode.

Nul doute sur le camp qui l'a emporté, ni sur les raisons de cette victoire. L'austérité est morte. Et comme les politiciens classiques continuent de prendre des mesures d'arrière-garde contre les arrivistes populistes, ils vont probablement adopter de nouvelles mesures d'assouplissement de la politique budgétaire (ou tout au moins éviter de la resserrer), pour bénéficier de gains économiques à court terme quasi-certains. En même temps, il y a peu de chances qu'ils tiennent compte des avertissements des résultats d'endettement plus élevés à moyen terme, étant donné les pourparlers très répandus sur des taux d'intérêt qui restent « plus bas plus longtemps. »

Une façon de confirmer qu'un consensus international sur la politique budgétaire s'est dégagé consiste à examiner les déclarations communes des décideurs. La dernière fois où le G-7 a publié un communiqué soulignant l'importance de l'assainissement budgétaire remonte au Sommet de Lough Erne en 2013, quand le G-8 existait encore.

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