Demise of austerity Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

悄然落幕的紧缩

伦敦—决策者严肃地讨论财政政策的优点已经有好几年了。关于通过刺激提振短期增长的潜在好处,或者政府债务达到了危及中期增长的水平的威胁的争论,则保持沉默。

哪一方胜出、为什么胜出,毫无悬念。紧缩已死。而在传统政客继续死命抵挡民粹主义的兴起时,他们可能也将祭出更多的财政政策宽松——或者避免紧缩——来收获几乎肯定能够获得的短期经济效益。与此同时,他们可能不会去顾及关于高债务水平的中期后果的警告,因为所有人都在说利率将“在更长的时间里保持较低水平”。

一个确认国际财政政策共识已经产生的方法是看看决策者们的共同宣言说了什么。上一次G7公报中指出财政整合的重要性要追溯到2017年的厄恩湖峰会,当时还是G8的年代。

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