Disparates fiscales

NUEVA YORK – El estímulo fiscal que aplicaron la mayoría de las economías avanzadas y mercados emergentes durante la recesión global de 2008-2009 –junto con la relajación de la política monetaria y el apoyo al sistema financiero—evitó que la Gran Recesión se convirtiera en otra Gran Depresión en 2010. En un momento en el que todos los componentes de la demanda privada se venían abajo, el impulso dado por el aumento en el gasto público y la reducción de los impuestos detuvo la caída libre de la economía global y creó las bases de la recuperación.

Desafortunadamente, el gasto de estímulo y el rescate conexo del sistema financiero, junto con los efectos de la recesión en los ingresos, contribuyeron a los déficits de alrededor del 10% del PIB en la mayor parte de las economías avanzadas. Según el Fondo Monetario Internacional, entre otros, el coeficiente deuda pública-PIB de estas economías superará el 110% para 2015, en comparación con el 70% previo a la crisis. En la mayoría de las economías avanzadas, el envejecimiento de la población implica más deuda pública a largo plazo debido a los planes de jubilación que no están suficientemente financiados y a los crecientes costos de la atención a la salud.

Así pues, en la mayoría de las economías avanzadas es necesario reducir los déficits para evitar un desastre más adelante. No obstante, muchas investigaciones, incluido un estudio reciente del FMI, indican que un aumento de los impuestos y una disminución del gasto público tienen un efecto negativo a corto plazo sobre la demanda agregada, lo que refuerza las tendencias de deflación y recesión – y debilita la consolidación fiscal.

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