愚蠢的财政政策

纽约——绝大多数发达经济体和新兴市场国家在2008-2009年全球衰退期间实行的财政刺激政策——与宽松货币政策和支持金融体系政策的效果相叠加——成功防止了这场衰退在2010年再次陷入大萧条之中。在构成私人需求的所有元素都溃不成军的时刻,来自加大政府开支和降低税收的推动政策成功阻止了全球经济自由落体,并由此创造了复苏的基础。

不幸的是,刺激性消费和对金融系统的紧急援助,再加上衰退期间收入的下降效应,共同铸成了多数发达国家超过GDP10%的财政赤字。 按照国际货币基金组织的统计,上述经济体政府公债占GDP的比例将于2015年超过110%,而危机爆发前这一数字只有70%。 由于非全资退休金计划和医疗成本的升高,多数发达经济体的人口老化现象将会导致长期公共债务增加。

因此,在多数发达国家中,需要降低赤字才能达到防止财政列车最终倾覆的效果。 但包括国际货币基金组织近期研究在内的多数研究成果表明,增加税收和削减政府开支会对总需求产生短期的负面影响,从而强化通货紧缩和经济衰退的趋势,并严重破坏财政领域的稳固。

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