Chris Van Es

Mentirillas y disparates fiscales

BERKELEY – En todo el mundo, el debate sobre la consolidación fiscal tiene el sonido distintivo de dos voces que se superponen entre sí.

Una de las voces es la de aquellos que insisten en que los gobiernos deben tomar medidas ahora mismo, a cualquier costo, para controlar los déficits presupuestarios. Llevar las finanzas públicas a una situación sostenible, arguyen, es esencial para tranquilizar a los mercados financieros. Si se realizan esfuerzos concertados para equilibrar los presupuestos, se fomentará la confianza. Y si se restablece la confianza, el consumo y la inversión aumentarán.

Desde este punto de vista, reducir los déficits será una medida expansionaria. Como prueba de que esto no se trata simplemente de una posibilidad hipotética, los defensores de la consolidación fiscal señalan casos como el de Dinamarca a principios de los años 1980, Irlanda a fines de los años 1980 y Finlandia en los años 1990.

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