michel temer Evaristo Sa/AFP/Getty Images

财政收缩有可能刺激增长吗?

圣地亚哥—欧洲的最近经验表明,财政收缩不可能带来扩张效果。希腊尝试了财政收缩,结果政府支出下降、税收增加,产出崩溃。欧洲其他国家也发生了这样的事情,只不过没有希腊那么剧烈。欧洲的紧缩派——诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)这样称呼他们——输掉了这场争论。

但西方的教训未必适合其他国家。

在两个南美国家,财政整合可以刺激增长的概念应该重新审视。在巴西,政府一直在削减其为数巨大的财政赤字,与此同时,其经济正从几十年来最深度的衰退中复苏(尽管最近缠上总统特梅尔的腐败丑闻可能令复苏中断)。在阿根廷,总统马克里的政府在削减赤字方面已经做到了极致,但并没有引起经济回归停滞的风险。

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