Comments 6

هل يعزز الانكماش المالي النمو

Jun 1, 2017 Andrés Velasco

سانتياجو ــ تشير تجربة أوروبا الأخيرة إلى أن الانكماش المالي من غير الوارد أن يكون توسعيا. فعندما جُرِّب في اليونان، انخفض الإنفاق الحكومي، وارتفعت الضرائب، وانهار الناتج. وحدث الشيء نفسه، لكن بصورة أقل دراماتيكية، في أماكن أخرى من القارة. لقد ثبت فشل حُجة أنصار التقشف، كما يحب بول كروجمان رجل الاقتصاد الحائز على جائزة نوبل أن يسميهم.

لكن دروس الغرب لا تنطبق على بقية العالم بالضرورة.

في اثنتين من دول أميركا اللاتينية، بات من الواجب إعادة النظر في فكرة مفادها أن ضبط الأوضاع المالية (خفض العجز والدين الحكوميين) كفيل بتحفيز النمو. ففي البرازيل دأبت الحكومة على خفض العجز المالي الهائل في حين كان الاقتصاد يتعافى من أعمق حالة ركود يمر بها منذ عقود من الزمن (وإن كانت فضيحة الفساد التي تورط فيها الآن الرئيس ميشيل تيمر ربما تعرقل هذا الجهد). وفي الأرجنتين، تستطيع إدارة الرئيس موريسيو ماكري أن تخفض العجز بقوة أكبر مما فعلت حتى الآن، من دون المخاطرة بالعودة إلى الركود.

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Andrés Velasco

Writing for PS since 2001
85 Commentaries

Andrés Velasco, a former presidential candidate and finance minister of Chile, is Dean of the School of Public Policy at the London School of Economics and Political Science. He is the author of numerous books and papers on international economics and development, and has served on the faculty at Harvard, Columbia, and New York Universities.

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Bernard Fudim Jun 18, 2017

The major deterrent to a sustainable economy in Brazil is the prevalence of crime. Brazilians who want to feel safe often leave the coastal cities such as Sao. With Brazil stuck in what may be its worst depression on record, the homicide rate in Rio de Janeiro climbed by 20% in 2016 from the previous year. Brazil's moribund economic state is held prison due to the surge in crime and violence. Brazil's economy will not improve until a dictator takes over the government and deals with the criminals, and presents an atmosphere conducive to an economic resurgence and utilization of its resources both material and its people.
The level and frequency of crime in Brazil has a major impact on the work and life of the community. Violent crimes (murder, armed robbery, carjackings, assaults, kidnappings) are a frequent occurrence. Opportunistic street crime, pickpocketing, purse snatching, smash-and-grab thefts from vehicles and storefronts) is a constant concern. Organized crime is controlled by major drug gangs, operating mainly in the favelas and in the prison system. The crime in Rio’s favelas is certainly a product of organized crime, mostly centered on narcotics trafficking. In Rio de Janeiro, a favela pacification program” was begun by the state government to bring favelas under government and police control and have occupied over 30 favelas to date (mostly in the southern area). There have been recent instances of large-scale gun battles in/around the favelas during some of the police operations. In 2016, there were incidents of specific targeting of police officers by criminal elements in certain favelas. The majority of the city’s drug-related crimes are based upon
The drug trade and persons addicted to illicit drugs commit street assaults, robberies, to support their addictions. Brazil's homicide rate is 30-35 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants. In São Paulo, robbery, assault, burglary, and theft are concerns have made life in that city unsafe. Their criminals are organized, and sophisticated. All neighborhoods in the city of São Paulo are susceptible to crime. Several Brazilian states suffering from gaping budget deficits. The state government, which has struggled to pay police, doctors and teachers.
Brazil continues to rank among the most pervasive cybercrime environments worldwide. Brazilian cybercriminals are becoming more sophisticated, stealing billions of dollars annually despite government efforts to stop malicious activity online. The banking sector has been the primary target of these operations, and anecdotal information suggests insider access. However, cybercrime also affects daily Internet users, private sector organizations, Endemic attacks on portable point-of-sale systems to obtain the information stored in the magnetic strip of a credit card as it is swiped for payment, requires access to the payment hardware, and researchers note it requires insider access. Incidents of cargo theft, from overland shipments and from storage facilities, occur frequently. Airports inaugurated supplemental security measures, in part to thwart criminal activity targeting aviation facilities.
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Leonardo Santana Jun 5, 2017

Although Brazilian Government has, since 2016, signaled its intention to cut its fiscal deficit, it has not happened yet. Actually, the fiscal deficit in 2016 was the largest in the last 15 years, and the forecasts for 2017 are not positive.
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Nilson B. Nunes Jun 4, 2017

The difference to be considered is that: while the Brazilian population is 203 million (according to IBGE), the Italian population registered zero growth in 2014, according to the Italian Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) on 06/15/2015. According to the data, the country has 60,795,612 inhabitants, an increase of 12,944 people compared to the previous year. THE LORD DOES NOT THINK THAT THIS DIFFERENCE FROM 203 TO 61 MILLION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED? If not, why not?
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Paul Daley Jun 2, 2017

Good article. The US actually went through a period of fiscal contraction and booming growth under Clinton in the 1990s, though the bust that followed should suggest that the recipe for stable, long term growth probably includes more than just a tight budget and accommodating monetary policy.
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Jose araujo Jun 2, 2017

Another one that believes in Santa...

How can someone in this day and age write such a piece? Mr Velasco surely is living in another dimension.

Problem is South America is Cronyism Depotism and Oligarchies, and unfortunatly many of them come disguised has supposed free markets and freedom defenders.

South America will continue to lag until they start to take Education, Heath and Security seriously
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Paul Friesen Jun 1, 2017

Arguably, we saw something like this in Canada in the 1990's. Government, which had been running unsustainable deficits for many years, suddenly cut its deficit in a major way and even began running surpluses. It is not obvious that it was expansionary, but at least it did not cause a big contraction because, as you say, the central bank could and did drop interest rates, and the currency depreciated. At least, healthy books allowed us to weather the 2008 crisis better than most.

There were, of course, less desirable effects. Reduced social spending has surely contributed to growing inequality, and to health care deficiencies. I would argue that the deficit cut should have involved more tax increases and less spending cuts to avoid this.
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هل يعزز الانكماش المالي النمو

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