¿Cuál es la política de salida?

NUEVA YORK – Hay un consenso general en el sentido de que la gran flexibilización monetaria y los enormes estímulos y apoyos al sector financiero que pusieron en práctica gobiernos y bancos centrales de todo el mundo impidieron que la profunda recesión de 2008-2009 se convirtiera en la Segunda Gran Depresión. Los encargados del diseño de políticas pudieron evitar una depresión porque habían aprendido de los errores de política que se cometieron durante la Gran Depresión de los años treinta y la casi depresión japonesa de los noventa.

Como resultado, los debates de política se enfocan ahora en la forma que tomará la recuperación: en forma de V (regreso rápido al crecimiento potencial), en forma de U (crecimiento lento y anémico) o incluso en forma de W (una doble caída). Durante la caída libre de la economía global que se dio entre el otoño de 2008 y la primavera de 2009, entre los escenarios posibles también se encontraba una catástrofe económica y financiera en forma de L.

No obstante, la cuestión crucial de política a que nos enfrentaremos es cómo organizar los tiempos y la secuencia de la estrategia de salida de esta enorme flexibilización monetaria y fiscal. Es claro que el camino fiscal que siguen actualmente la mayoría de las economías avanzadas –Estados Unidos, la zona del euro, el Reino Unido, Japón y otros están recurriendo a déficit presupuestales muy grandes y a una rápida acumulación de deuda pública—no es sostenible.

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