Comment mettre fin à la politique de relâchement budgétaire et monétaire

NEW-YORK – Il y a un consensus général pour admettre que si la grave récession de 2008-2009 ne s'est pas transformée en une Grande dépression II, c'est grâce au relâchement brutal de la politique monétaire, aux plans de sauvetage de l'économie et au soutien massif apporté au système financier par les différents gouvernements et banques centrales à travers le monde. Les dirigeants politiques ont évité la dépression parce qu'ils ont tiré la leçon des erreurs commises durant la Grande dépression des années 1930 et la quasi dépression japonaise des années 1990.

Le débat politique s'est donc focalisé sur la question de savoir quelle forme prendra la reprise : un V (un retour rapide à la croissance), un U (une croissance faible et anémique) ou encore un W (une rechute). Durant la dégringolade de l'économie mondiale entre l'automne 2008 et le printemps 2009, une Armageddon économique et financière en forme de L était encore plausible.

Néanmoins, une question cruciale nous attend : quel calendrier et quelles étapes adopter pour sortir de ce monumental relâchement monétaire et budgétaire ? Il est évident que la voie budgétaire adoptée par la plupart des pays avancés (les USA, le Royaume-Uni, dans la zone euro, le Japon et d'autres) - creuser un très large déficit budgétaire et accroitre rapidement la dette publique - n'est pas tenable à long terme.

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