Hledání ústupové strategie

NEW YORK – Panuje všeobecný konsensus, že mohutné monetární uvolnění, fiskální stimul a podpora finančního systému ze strany vlád a centrálních bank po celém světě zabránily tomu, aby hluboká recese z let 2008-2009 přerostla ve velkou hospodářskou krizi II. Politikům se podařilo odvrátit depresi, protože se poučili z politických chyb učiněných během velké hospodářské krize ve 30. letech a během japonské „skorodeprese“ v 90. letech.

V důsledku toho se politické debaty proměnily ve spory o to, jakou podobu bude mít zotavení: zda podobu písmene „V“ (rychlý návrat k potenciálnímu růstu), podobu písmene „U“ (pomalý a chudokrevný růst), či dokonce podobu písmene „W“ (recese se dvěma dny). Během globálního volného pádu ekonomik mezi podzimem 2008 a jarem 2009 zaujímal v seznamu pravděpodobných scénářů významnou roli také hospodářský a finanční armageddon v podobě písmene „L“.

Klíčová politická otázka, kterou bude třeba vyřešit, však zní, jak načasovat a rozplánovat ústupovou strategii z tohoto mohutného měnového a fiskálního uvolnění. Je zřejmé, že fiskální cesta, kterou se v současnosti ubírá většina rozvinutých ekonomik – spoléhání se Spojených států, eurozóny, Velké Británie, Japonska a dalších zemí na velmi vysoké rozpočtové schodky a trvalou akumulaci veřejného dluhu – je trvale neudržitelná.

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