Olivier Douliery/Stringer

La mondialisation menacée

NEW HAVEN – Bien que séduisante en théorie, la mondialisation est menacée dans la réalité. Telle est la leçon du Brexit et du succès de Donald Trump aux USA. C'est la réaction à la mondialisation qui sous-tend la virulente réaction anti-chinoise à travers le monde. Les adeptes du libre-échange (dont je suis) doivent affronter cette réalité.

Il n'existe pas de théorie rigoureuse de la mondialisation. Le mieux que peut nous fournir l'économie, c'est la pensée de David Ricardo au début du 19° siècle : si un pays se développe uniquement en fonction de ses avantages comparatifs (en termes de ressources et de main d'œuvre), il va bénéficier d'une intensification du commerce transfrontalier. La libre circulation des biens - la quintessence de la mondialisation - est prometteuse de bénéfices pour tous.

Cette promesse paraît réaliste à long terme, mais à court terme il faut se confronter à la dure réalité. Le Brexit en est le dernier exemple.

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