全球金融体系健康状况如何？

Jul 10, 2017 Mohamed A. El-Erian

伦敦—最近几周以来，大西洋两岸的决策者纷纷重申金融系统可靠而稳定。美联储在6月份宣布，所有美国银行都通过了其最新的年度压力测试。美联储主席耶伦现在认为，“我们这辈子”都不会遭遇新的金融危机了。

与此同时，负责监督全球监管措施，确保它们符合全球一致的标准的金融稳定委员会（FSB）在一封致G20领导人的信中宣布，“有毒害的影子银行”正在被清理。

简言之，支持全球金体系的持续努力显然收到了成效，特别是在增强资本缓冲和清理银行系统的最重要部分的资产负债表方面。决策者最近的信誓旦旦，与我们这些担心降低系统性金融风险，以及确保银行服务于实体经济而不是威胁实体经济福祉的措施做得仍然不够的人，形成了冲突。

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Mohamed A. El-Erian

Writing for PS since 2010
129 Commentaries

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he served as CEO and co-Chief Investment Officer, was Chairman of US President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council. He is President Elect of Queens’ College (Cambridge University), senior adviser at Gramercy, and Part-time Practice Professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. He previously served as CEO of the Harvard Management Company and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund. He was named one of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers four years running. He is the author, most recently, of The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse.

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Ting Mak Sep 29, 2017

The global financial crisis in 2008 as well as othe crisises were caused by USA. The world wouild be still be in crisis if China had not offered help. At present USA is driving the world into other financial crisis by obstructing world trade, careless spending without any restraint and waging wars that have negative effect on the world economy.
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Barry Rosenfeld Jul 19, 2017

"In our lifetimes" for Dr. Yellen might not be universally applicable. El-Erian is quite correct that risk cannot be squeezed out of the system. Unfortunately Greenspan thought it could be made so tiny that no one would notice. No one should discount risk, especially in a dynamically changing world in which the unknown unknowns are ... unknown.
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Peter Ellis Jul 16, 2017

No mention of climate change and how banks are going to be (or should be) players there.
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Jim Gallagher Jul 16, 2017

Will the unwinding of financial regs, including Dodd-Frank, have an impact on this Yellin projected lifetime of financial security?
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Martin Screeton Jul 12, 2017

The Top has been Treated... the bottom however, which caused the financial breakdown has not been treated. This is an example of the blind and deaf at the top of the food chain having absolutely no real experience or connections to what goes on in the street.
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B Wilds Jul 12, 2017

A series of what would have at one time been considered outlandish ideas, such as a war on cash, forgiving debt through a debt jubilee, giving everyone a guaranteed income, and even injecting money into the economic system by dropping it from a helicopter have all found their way into conversations about ways to jump start the economy. This should be a reason for concern.

An example of just how delusional we have become as to the fragility of our financial system is that many people have taken comfort in the efforts to control the banking sector through legislation following the 2008 crisis. The Dodd Frank Act of over 2,300 pages and still growing, is the longest and most complicated bill ever passed by the U.S. legislature. The article below makes a case that claims of economic stability are just an illusion.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2016/05/belief-in-false-illusion-of-stability.html
- Steve Hurst Jul 12, 2017
  
  Bruce
  
  1 They need to call for a bigger vehicle
  
  2 Nobody seems to mention a reduction in real disposable income will have obvious consequences in a consumer society
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jagjeet sinha Jul 11, 2017

ZERO SURREALISM
Zero Perpetuals perhaps on the horizon to assist Democracy's Mandate in steering Economic Engines.
With Centralised Banking Systems unable to defend The Establishment - Democracy's tools will encompass Fiscal Departures.
The Trump Template will unleash the First of such Forays - which will impact bank balance sheets with unexpected volatility.
The 2008 Meltdown was triggered by Asset Prices - Global Capital Markets dramatically injecting unprecedented angst.
A Decade later - Democracy's responses have been equally dramatic, demolishing Establishment after Establishment.
The Brave New World of Zero Interest Rates has changed the Economic Geography topsy turvy - Fiscal Tools overtaking Monetary Myopia.
Because Democracy's Mandate is supreme - and will result in realignment of Economics with Democracy, not vice versa.
Public Infrastructure Assets @ The Heart of Economic Engines in Democracies - shifts the focus from efficiencies to Inequalities.
Permanent Monetization of Central Bank Interventions and the resultant bloated Balance Sheets can appear like Weimar.
But the Realignment that Democracies will have to engineer, leave The Trumps very few options.
The abundance of liquidity perhaps will propel the Dow towards 30000 - unless Zeroes are clipped to shrink Central Bank balance sheets.
Zeroes remaining perpetual seems the obvious direction - the price of Money dropping to Zero seems infinitely surreal.
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stephan Edwards Jul 11, 2017

I can only say that bailing out people industries with tax payer money is a "Moral Hazard" only when the persons or industries are not big political contributors or didn't go to the right schools. In other taxpayer funded bailouts are not for the little people. I don't know what world Mr. El-Erian is in but in the world I live in the banks that were to big to fail are now even bigger and rather MORE powerful. They own the government outright and blatantly which kind of guarantees a tax payer funded bailout does it not? So could someone please explain why bailing out a bank and paying its executive bonus's is good business but bailing out small town main street or taxpayers is "Moral Hazard"?
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Steve Hurst Jul 11, 2017

Safe Gambling, a new concept

Whatever it takes

Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, has pledged to do "whatever it takes" ...
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Steve Hurst Jul 11, 2017

Safe Gambling, a new concept

A development from asking the taxpayer to pay your gambling bets that went sour
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Steve Hurst Jul 11, 2017

Safe Gambling, a new concept
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Greg Kramer Jul 11, 2017

Mr. El-Erian wrote, "....policymakers have also made progress toward standardizing derivative markets and making them more robust and transparent, which also reduces the risk of future taxpayer bailouts for irresponsible institutions."

He must be living in alternate universe than the one that I live in.
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Andrew Benington Jul 11, 2017

Yet more "elysium bubble" economics. In 2007-2009 it was clear that western economies had abandoned the rule of law. Corrupt and crooked people at all levels of society were not just allowed to keep the gains of mortgage and securities fraud, central bank and state institutions protected and rewarded them. They have since progressed to dominate every sphere.
The resulting amoral policy, the abandonment of integrity by state institutions and business, is a kleptocratization of the west.
We have seen a tower block In london go up like a petrol soaked bonfire for reasons usually evoked to account for developing nation tragedies. Behind it a structural abandonment of integrity in the UK. This is everywhere. Because when the rule of law is abandoned, if one doesn't play one is out of the game.
If we want our economies to flourish and spread the benefit across all contributors, for the phillips curve to work again, for investment to raise productivity to return, we must look to the rule of law to re-establish integrity in business and political life. Today's tick box compliance is a stone to be swerved. It is an ineffective substitute for personal integrity.
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Michael Public Jul 10, 2017

Generals have a tendency to fight the previous war (The Maginot line will go down in history as the archetypal example of this).

I see the risks associated with non-banks as non-risks because the taxpayers do not have to bail them out if they fail. If they fail, they go bankrupt and their investors lose money. At the same time I think you are not discussing the potential black swan in room, is that many people have lost faith in the global financial system - cue Donald Trump and Brexit. While I am sure it will survive for the short to medium term, there is a world of difference in the long term between when you have unilateral support and when you are much maligned by half the population. Then again as Keynes pointed out, in the long term we will all be dead.
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Paul Daley Jul 10, 2017

El-Erian is right to question whether the FED's appreciation of what's "systemically important' is complete. And, even if it is, prudential regulation is only the first line of defense against financial crises; that prudential regulation has to be backed up by emergency response tools (which central banks have) and longer term measures to resuscitate economies (which central banks lack). The FED may hope we can avoid another financial crisis in our lifetimes, but even now it's not prepared to deal with one.
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