Brendan Smialowski/Stringer

Der Kampf gegen die nächste globale Finanzkrise

NEW HAVEN – Was meinen Leute damit, wenn sie Generäle dafür kritisieren, „den vorherigen Krieg zu führen“? Dies bedeutet nicht, dass Generäle denken, sie würden denselben Waffensystemen gegenüber stehen und auf den gleichen Schlachtfeldern kämpfen wie zuvor. Dies wissen sie sicherlich besser. Wenn dieser Fehler gemacht wird, dann auf einer subtileren Ebene. Oft sind Generäle bei der Entwicklung von Plänen und Nachschub für diese neuen Waffensysteme und Schlachtfelder einfach zu langsam. Und sie gehen manchmal davon aus, die Psychologie der Öffentlichkeit und die Erklärungsmuster, die die für einen Sieg so wichtige Moral beeinflussen, seien dieselben wie beim letzten Krieg.

Dies trifft auch auf die Regulierungsbehörden zu, deren Job es ist, Finanzkrisen zu verhindern. Auch sie laufen Gefahr, zu langsam auf neue Situationen zu reagieren. Und auch sie passen sie sich oft zu spät an veränderte Einstellungen der Öffentlichkeit an. Der Bedarf an Regulierungsmaßnahmen hängt von der öffentlichen Einschätzung vergangener Krisen ab, und, wie George Akerlof und ich in Animal Spirits argumentieren, sind diese Einschätzungen wiederum stark von wechselnden öffentlichen Erklärungsmustern abhängig.

Der letzte Fortschrittsbericht des Forums für Finanzstabilität (FSB, Financial Stability Board) in Basel bescheinigt 24 der weltweit größten Volkswirtschaften eindeutige Verbesserungen bei den stabilitätsfördernden finanziellen Regulierungsmaßnahmen. Ihre „Instrumententafel“ zeigt in 14 unterschiedlichen Regulierungsbereichen Fortschritte an. Beispielsweise erhalten alle 24 Länder gute Noten für ihre Umsetzung der Risikokapitalanforderungen nach Basel III.

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