Brendan Smialowski/Stringer

Lutter contre la prochaine crise financière mondiale

NEW HAVEN – Que veulent dire les gens quand ils reprochent aux généraux « d'être en retard d'une guerre » ? Certainement pas que les généraux pensent avoir affaire aux mêmes systèmes d'armement et aux mêmes champs de bataille. Ils ne sont pas aussi naïfs. L'erreur, dans la mesure où les généraux la commettent, doit se situer à un niveau plus subtil. Les généraux mettent parfois du temps avant de développer des plans et des équipements militaires pour ces nouveaux systèmes d'armement et ces nouveaux champs de bataille. Fait tout aussi important, ils supposent parfois que la psychologie de l'opinion publique et les récits qui pèsent sur le moral des troupes et qui jouent un rôle dans la victoire, sont identiques à ceux de la dernière guerre.

Cela vaut également pour les organismes de réglementation dont le travail consiste à prévenir les crises financières. Pour les mêmes raisons, ils peuvent être lents à évoluer en réponse à de nouvelles situations. Ils ont tendance à s'adapter lentement à l'évolution de la psychologie de l'opinion publique. Le besoin de réglementation dépend de la façon dont la dernière crise a été perçue par l'opinion publique. Et comme George Akerlof et moi l'avons soutenu dans Animal Spirits, ces perceptions dépendent beaucoup de l'évolution des récits populaires.

Les derniers rapports de progrès depuis le Conseil de Stabilité Financière (CSF) de Bâle donnent un aperçu des améliorations de la stabilité des règlements financiers dans les 24 plus grandes économies du monde. Leur « Tableau de bord » recense des progrès dans 14 domaines de réglementation différents. Par exemple, le CSF attribue des notes élevées à tous les 24 pays qui mettent en œuvre les exigences de capital risque de Bâle III.

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