Brendan Smialowski/Stringer

Lutter contre la prochaine crise financière mondiale

NEW HAVEN – Que veulent dire les gens quand ils reprochent aux généraux « d'être en retard d'une guerre » ? Certainement pas que les généraux pensent avoir affaire aux mêmes systèmes d'armement et aux mêmes champs de bataille. Ils ne sont pas aussi naïfs. L'erreur, dans la mesure où les généraux la commettent, doit se situer à un niveau plus subtil. Les généraux mettent parfois du temps avant de développer des plans et des équipements militaires pour ces nouveaux systèmes d'armement et ces nouveaux champs de bataille. Fait tout aussi important, ils supposent parfois que la psychologie de l'opinion publique et les récits qui pèsent sur le moral des troupes et qui jouent un rôle dans la victoire, sont identiques à ceux de la dernière guerre.

Cela vaut également pour les organismes de réglementation dont le travail consiste à prévenir les crises financières. Pour les mêmes raisons, ils peuvent être lents à évoluer en réponse à de nouvelles situations. Ils ont tendance à s'adapter lentement à l'évolution de la psychologie de l'opinion publique. Le besoin de réglementation dépend de la façon dont la dernière crise a été perçue par l'opinion publique. Et comme George Akerlof et moi l'avons soutenu dans Animal Spirits, ces perceptions dépendent beaucoup de l'évolution des récits populaires.

Les derniers rapports de progrès depuis le Conseil de Stabilité Financière (CSF) de Bâle donnent un aperçu des améliorations de la stabilité des règlements financiers dans les 24 plus grandes économies du monde. Leur « Tableau de bord » recense des progrès dans 14 domaines de réglementation différents. Par exemple, le CSF attribue des notes élevées à tous les 24 pays qui mettent en œuvre les exigences de capital risque de Bâle III.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in;
  1. Television sets showing a news report on Xi Jinping's speech Anthony Wallace/Getty Images

    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

    China’s success in the next five years will depend largely on how well the government manages the tensions underlying its complex agenda. In particular, China’s leaders will need to balance a muscular Communist Party, setting standards and protecting the public interest, with an empowered market, driving the economy into the future.

  2. United States Supreme Court Hisham Ibrahim/Getty Images

    The Sovereignty that Really Matters

    The preference of some countries to isolate themselves within their borders is anachronistic and self-defeating, but it would be a serious mistake for others, fearing contagion, to respond by imposing strict isolation. Even in states that have succumbed to reductionist discourses, much of the population has not.

  3.  The price of Euro and US dollars Daniel Leal Olivas/Getty Images

    Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment

    When the Bretton Woods Agreement was hashed out in 1944, it was agreed that countries with current-account deficits should be able to limit temporarily purchases of goods from countries running surpluses. In the ensuing 73 years, the so-called "scarce-currency clause" has been largely forgotten; but it may be time to bring it back.

  4. Leaders of the Russian Revolution in Red Square Keystone France/Getty Images

    Trump’s Republican Collaborators

    Republican leaders have a choice: they can either continue to collaborate with President Donald Trump, thereby courting disaster, or they can renounce him, finally putting their country’s democracy ahead of loyalty to their party tribe. They are hardly the first politicians to face such a decision.

  5. Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron John Thys/Getty Images

    How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

    With talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU stalled, negotiators should shift to the temporary “transition” Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested last month. Above all, the negotiators should focus immediately on the British budget contributions that will be required to make an orderly transition possible.

  6. Ksenia Sobchak Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    Is Vladimir Putin Losing His Grip?

    In recent decades, as President Vladimir Putin has entrenched his authority, Russia has seemed to be moving backward socially and economically. But while the Kremlin knows that it must reverse this trajectory, genuine reform would be incompatible with the kleptocratic character of Putin’s regime.

  7. Right-wing parties hold conference Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

    Rage Against the Elites

    • With the advantage of hindsight, four recent books bring to bear diverse perspectives on the West’s current populist moment. 
    • Taken together, they help us to understand what that moment is and how it arrived, while reminding us that history is contingent, not inevitable

    Global Bookmark

    Distinguished thinkers review the world’s most important new books on politics, economics, and international affairs.

  8. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Bill Clark/Getty Images

    Don’t Bank on Bankruptcy for Banks

    As a part of their efforts to roll back the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, congressional Republicans have approved a measure that would have courts, rather than regulators, oversee megabank bankruptcies. It is now up to the Trump administration to decide if it wants to set the stage for a repeat of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.