Brendan Smialowski/Stringer

打赢下一次全球金融危机

纽黑文—当人们批评将军们“打上一场战争”时,他们是什么意思?并不是将军们会认为他们将在同一片战场上面临同一套武器系统。他们显然知道得更多。就将军们所犯下的错误而言,必然是在更加微妙的层面犯下的。有时候,将军们为这些新武器系统和战场制定计划和装备的动作缓慢。同样重要的是,有时候他们假设大众心理,以及影响对获胜至关重要的士气的叙事,与上一场战争是一样的。

对于负有预防金融危机责任的监管者来说也是如此。出于同样的原因,他们应对新情况可能动作缓慢。他们总是很慢地适应变化的大众心理。监管需要取决于大众对上一场危机的感知,乔治·阿克洛夫(George Akerlof)和我在《动物精神》(Animal Spirits)中指出,这一感知严重取决于变化的流行叙事。

巴塞尔金融稳定委员会(FSB)最新进展报告列出了全球24个最大经济体在强化稳定的金融监管方面所做出的切实改进。它们的“仪表板”上标明了14个不同监管领域的进展。比如,FSB给所有24国对基于风险的巴塞尔III要求的实施情况都打了高分。

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