stock market Bryan R. Smith/AFP/Getty Images

¿Los mercados no ven los riesgos geopolíticos?

NUEVA YORK – La derrota de la populista de derecha Marine Le Pen a manos de Emmanuel Macron en la elección presidencial francesa da un respiro a la Unión Europea y al euro, pero todavía abundan riesgos geopolíticos. La victoria de Macron no aquietará la reacción populista antiglobalizadora en Occidente, que todavía puede generar proteccionismo, guerras comerciales y fuertes restricciones migratorias. Si las fuerzas desintegradoras se asientan, la salida del Reino Unido puede llevar a la ruptura futura de la UE, con o sin Macron.

Mientras tanto, Rusia mantiene una conducta agresiva en el Báltico, los Balcanes, Ucrania y Siria. En Medio Oriente todavía hay varios estados cuasifallidos, como Irak, Yemen, Libia y Líbano. Y las guerras por intermediarios entre la Arabia Saudita sunita y el Irán shiita no dan señales de estar cerca de un final.

En Asia, cualquier movida apresurada de Estados Unidos o Corea del Norte puede precipitar un conflicto militar en la península de Corea. Y China sigue promoviendo (y en algunos casos, escalando) disputas territoriales con sus vecinos.

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