Le lezioni fallaci della storia finanziaria

TOLOSA – Se la storia generale punisce chi non impara le sue lezioni, la storia del sistema finanziario impartisce la sua punizione con un piglio sadico, colpendo anche chi impara con troppo entusiasmo. Di tanto in tanto, le crisi finanziarie hanno rispecchiato le debolezze dei sistemi di regolamento basati sulle lezioni tratte dalle crisi precedenti. La crisi attuale non ha fatto eccezioni, così come non farà eccezione l’eventuale prossima crisi.

Il sistema di regolamento finanziario creato nel dopoguerra è stato fondato principalmente su tre lezioni tratte dagli anni ’30. Inizialmente, si pensava che il fallimento delle banche fosse dovuto al panico dei depositanti, e non si riusciva a capire che il panico dipendesse in realtà dal rischio fallimento.

Ma come per la teoria secondo la quale scappare da un leone lo spinge ad inseguirti, anche nell’idea che le banche falliscono a causa del panico dei depositanti c’è una parte di verità. Ma si tratta di una verità minima che il depositante medio non assicurato, così come il turista medio nel parco safari, è incoraggiato a non prendere in considerazione. In realtà, spesso e volentieri, il panico si scatena per delle buone ragioni. Negli anni ’30, gran parte delle banche sono fallite come risultato di una pessima gestione e di attività illegali, proprio come adesso.

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