Die falschen Lehren der Finanzgeschichte

TOULOUSE: Wenn die Geschichte jene straft, die es versäumen, aus ihr zu lernen, dann verabreicht die Finanzgeschichte ihre Bestrafung mit einer überraschenden, sadistischen Wendung – sie straft auch die, die mit Begeisterung von ihr lernen. Immer wieder spiegeln Finanzkrisen die Schwächen von Regulierungssystemen wider, die auf Lehren aus früheren Krisen gründen. Die heutige Krise macht da keine Ausnahme; und bei der nächsten Krise wird es genauso sein.

Das Nachkriegssystem der Finanzaufsicht gründete auf drei vermeintlichen Lehren aus den 1930er Jahren. Erstens dachten wir, der Hauptgrund, aus dem Banken scheitern, sei die Panik der Einleger, und nicht umgekehrt der Hauptgrund für Einlegerpanik die Tatsache, dass die Banken zu scheitern drohen.

Wie bei der Ansicht, das ein Davonlaufen vor einem Rudel Löwen dieses provoziert, einen zu fressen, steckt auch in dem Glauben, dass Banken scheitern, weil ihre Einleger in Panik geraten, ein Körnchen Wahrheit. Doch es ist ein kleines Körnchen, und eines, auf das sich der durchschnittliche unversicherte Anleger – wie der durchschnittliche Tourist in einem afrikanischen Nationalpark – nicht unbedingt verlassen sollte. Tatsächlich kommt es häufig aus gutem Grund zur Panik. Selbst in den 1930er Jahren scheiterten die meisten Banken (genau wie heute) an schlechtem Management und illegalen Aktivitäten.

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