التاريخ المالي ودروسه المضللة

تولوز ـ إذا كان التاريخ يعاقب أولئك الذين يفشلون في التعلم منه، فإن التاريخ المالي يضفي على عقابه صبغة سادية ـ وهو أيضاً يعاقب أولئك الذين يتعلمون منه بقدر أعظم مما ينبغي من الحماس. فقد عكست الأزمات المالية نقاط الضعف التي تعيب الأجهزة التنظيمية التي تأسست على الدروس المستفادة من الأزمات السابقة. وأزمة اليوم ليست استثناءً؛ ولن تكون الأزمة المقبلة استثناء.

لقد تأسس نظام القواعد المالية التنظيمية في مرحلة ما بعد الحرب على ثلاثة دروس مفترضة من أزمة ثلاثينيات القرن العشرين. فقد تصورناً أولاً أن السبب الرئيسي وراء فشل البنوك هو إصابة المودعين بالذعر، وليس أن السبب الرئيسي وراء إصابة المودعين بالذعر هو أن البنوك كانت معرضة لخطر الفشل.

ومثل وجهة النظر القائلة بأن محاولة الفرار من الأسود تستفز إصرارها على التهامك، فهناك مسحة من الصدق في وجهة النظر القائلة بأن البنوك تفشل لأن المودعين يصابون بالذعر. ولكنها مسحة ضئيلة، وإنه لمن الحماقة وقِلة الفطنة أن ننصح المودع المتوسط غير المؤمن عليه بالاعتماد عليها. فالحق أن نشوء العديد من نوبات الذعر يرجع لأسباب وجيهة. وحتى في ثلاثينيات القرن العشرين، كان فشل أغلب البنوك راجعاً لسوء الإدارة ومزاولة أنشطة غير مشروعة، كما هي الحال اليوم.

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