Ganancia financiera, dolor económico

NUEVA YORK – En los últimos tres meses, los precios de los activos globales rebotaron marcadamente: los precios de las acciones aumentaron en más del 30% en las economías avanzadas, y mucho más en los mercados emergentes. Los precios de las materias primas -petróleo, energía y minerales- se dispararon; los diferenciales de deuda corporativa (la diferencia entre la rentabilidad de los bonos corporativos y gubernamentales) se estrecharon drásticamente, al mismo tiempo que las rentabilidades de los bonos gubernamentales aumentaron marcadamente; la volatilidad (el "termómetro del miedo") cayó, y el dólar se debilitó, a medida que decreció la demanda de activos seguros en dólares.

Ahora bien, ¿la recuperación de los precios de los activos es generada por los fundamentos económicos? ¿La recuperación de los precios de las acciones es otra subida después de un período en baja o el inicio de una tendencia alcista?

Mientras que los datos económicos sugieren que se produjo una mejora de los fundamentos -se redujo el riesgo de una pronta depresión; aumentaron las perspectivas de que la recesión global toque fondo a fin de año; y está mejorando el sentimiento de riesgo-, es igualmente evidente que también están influyendo otros factores, menos sustentables. Es más, el marcado aumento de los precios de algunos activos amenaza la recuperación de una economía global que todavía no ha tocado fondo. De hecho, siguen existiendo muchos riesgos de una corrección hacia abajo del mercado.

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