Финансовый рост – экономические потрясения

Нью-Йорк. За последние 3 месяца мировые цены на активы резко выросли: курс акций увеличился более чем на 30% в развитых странах и намного больше в странах с развивающейся экономикой. Цены на такие товары, как нефть, энергоресурсы и полезные ископаемые подскочили, корпоративные кредитные спрэды (разница между доходами от корпоративных и правительственных облигаций) резко сократились, поскольку доходы от правительственных облигаций резко выросли, волатильность (критерий страха) упала, а доллар ослабел, поскольку спрос на надёжные долларовые активы сократился.

Но определяется ли этот рост цен на активы экономическими законами? Устойчив ли он? Является ли рост курса акций еще одним ралли на медвежьем рынке или началом бычьего тренда?

В то время как экономические данные говорят о том, что имело место улучшение экономических основ – риск близкой депрессии ослаб, перспектива того, что мировая рецессия к концу года достигнет дна, увеличивается, а ощущение риска уходит, и становится в равной степени ясно, что другие, менее устойчивые факторы также играют определённую роль. Более того, резкий рост цен на некоторые активы угрожает оздоровлению мировой экономики, которая ещё не достигла своего самого низкого уровня. В самом деле, опасность корректировки ухудшающегося рынка ещё остаётся.

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