金融回暖,经济犹寒

纽约——近三个月,全球资产价格强劲回升:发达经济体股票市值涨幅已超30%,大多数新兴市场涨幅更大。大宗商品——石油、能源和矿产的价格飙升;政府债收益迅速攀升,导致企业信用利差(企业债与政府债收益之差)急剧缩小;振荡(所谓“恐慌指标”)减缓了;美元走弱,表明市场对避险性美元资产的需求减弱了。

然而资产价格的这一波回升是不是由经济基本面驱动的呢?它是可持续的吗?这一波股价回升究竟是一轮牛市的开始,还是漫漫熊市里的一轮反弹?

虽然一些经济数据表明基本面的确有所改善,至少一场萧条来临的风险已有所降低,全球衰退在年末触底的可能性有所加大,风险情绪也有所缓和,但是一些不可持续因素也在发挥显著的作用。何况,某些资产价格的迅速回升会对全球经济复苏构成威胁。所以说,市场向下调整的许多风险因素犹存。

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