wave crashing into sea wall Ian Forsyth/ZumaPress

Ein Frühwarnsystem für den Finanzsektor

NEW YORK – Die jüngste Volatilität an den Märkten – sowohl in den Schwellenländern als auch in den entwickelten Volkswirtschaften – zeigt einmal mehr, wie sehr sich Rating-Agenturen und Anleger bei der Beurteilung der wirtschaftlichen und finanziellen Anfälligkeiten von Ländern irren können. Die Rating-Agenturen erkennen Risiken zu spät und warten zu lange damit, Länder herabzustufen, während die Anleger dem Herdentrieb folgen und häufig die Verschärfung von Risiken zu lange ignorieren, bevor sie dann abrupt umschalten und übertriebene Marktschwankungen hervorrufen.

Ein Frühwarnsystem für Finanztsunamis einzurichten mag angesichts der Beschaffenheit von Marktturbulenzen schwierig sein, doch braucht die Welt ein derartiges System heute dringender denn je. Kaum jemand hat die Subprime-Krise von 2008, das Ausfallrisiko in der Eurozone oder die aktuellen Turbulenzen an den globalen Finanzmärkten kommen sehen. Anschließend folgten Schuldzuweisungen an Politiker, Banken und supranationale Institutionen; die Rating-Agenturen und Analysten jedoch, die die Schuldendienstfähigkeit der Kreditnehmer – auch der staatlichen – falsch einschätzten, kamen zu leicht davon.

Im Prinzip beruhen Bonitätseinstufungen auf statistischen Modellen vergangener Ausfälle; in der Praxis freilich ist die Einstufung der staatlichen Zahlungsfähigkeit häufig eine subjektive Angelegenheit, weil staatliche Zahlungsausfälle tatsächlich selten vorkommen. Die Analysten bei den Rating-Agenturen verfolgen die Entwicklungen in dem Land, für das sie jeweils zuständig sind, und reisen gegebenenfalls dorthin, um die Lage selbst in Augenschein zu nehmen.

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