wave crashing into sea wall Ian Forsyth/ZumaPress

金融早期预警系统

纽约—最近的市场波动——新兴市场和发达经济体都一样——再一次证明,评级机构和投资者在评估各国经济和金融脆弱性时会犯下极其严重的错误。评级机构需要太长的时间认识风险、调降国家评级,而投资者的行为就像是羊群,常常在太长的时间里忽视风险的累积,然后突然转变方向,导致市场波动放大。

从市场动荡的性质看,金融海啸早期预警系统也许很难构建;但如今世界比任何其他时候都更加需要这样一套系统。几乎没有人预见到2008年的次贷危机、欧元区违约风险和当前全球金融市场动荡。指责之声纷纷指向政客、银行和超国家机构。但错判债务人(包括政府)偿还能力的评级机构和分析师的责任却被一笔带过。

理论上,评级机构基于过去违约的统计模型;但是,在实践中,国家违约的情况十分罕见,主权评级常常是基于主观做出的。评级机构的分析师追踪他们所负责的国家的发展趋势,必要时到相应的国家去看看情况如何。

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