Yanis Varoufakis Wiktor Dabkowski/ZUMA Wire

¿El efecto Varoufakis?

ATENAS – En su misiva de fines de 2015, Holger Schmieding, del banco de inversiones Berenberg de Hamburgo advirtió a los clientes de su empresa que de lo que deben preocuparse ahora es del riesgo político. Para ilustrarlo, publicó el diagrama a continuación, que muestra el colapso de la confianza empresarial en Grecia durante fines de la primavera de 2015, que solo se recuperó después de mi renuncia al Ministerio de Finanzas. Schmieding eligió llamar a esto «el efecto Varoufakis».

No hay dudas de que actualmente los inversores deben preocuparse —y mucho— por el riesgo político, incluida la capacidad de los políticos y burócratas para causar daños incalculables a las economías. Pero también deben recelar de aquellos analistas o incapaces de —o no interesados en— distinguir entre causalidad y correlación y entre insolvencia e iliquidez. En otras palabras, deben recelar de analistas como Schmieding.

La confianza empresarial en Grecia ciertamente se desplomó unos pocos meses después de que asumí como ministro de finanzas y se recuperó un mes después de mi renuncia. La correlación es evidente, pero, ¿fue esa la causa?

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