Yanis Varoufakis Wiktor Dabkowski/ZUMA Wire

O efeito Varoufakis?

ATENAS – Na carta que redigiu no final de 2015, Holger Schmieding, do banco de investimento Berenberg de Hamburgo, advertiu os clientes da sua agência de que o risco político deve ser o motivo da sua preocupação neste momento. Para ilustrar a sua afirmação, publicou o gráfico infra, que mostra como a confiança dos empresários desabou na Grécia durante o final da Primavera de 2015, e foi recuperada após a minha demissão do Ministério das Finanças. Schmieding chamou a este fenómeno o “efeito Varoufakis”.

Não há dúvida de que actualmente os investidores se devem preocupar - e muito - com o risco político, incluindo a capacidade que os políticos e burocratas têm para causar danos incalculáveis a uma economia. No entanto, devem também ser cautelosos relativamente a analistas que são incapazes de, ou não têm interesse em distinguir entre causalidade e correlação, e entre insolvência e falta de liquidez. Por outras palavras, devem ser cuidadosos relativamente a analistas como Schmieding.

Efectivamente, a confiança das empresas na Grécia desabou alguns meses após eu ter assumido o cargo de Ministro das Finanças. E foi recuperada um mês após a minha demissão. A correlação é tangível. Mas será que a causalidade também o é?

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