Yanis Varoufakis Wiktor Dabkowski/ZUMA Wire

Der Varoufakis-Effekt?

ATHEN – In seinem Jahresendbrief von 2015 warnte Holger Schmieding von der Hamburger Investmentbank Berenberg seine Kunden, sie müssten sich nun Sorgen über politische Risiken machen. Dazu verwies er auf das folgende Diagramm, das zeigt, wie im späten Frühling des Jahres 2015 in Griechenland das unternehmerische Vertrauen zusammenbrach und erst nach meinem Rücktritt als Finanzminister wieder auflebte. Dies nannte Schmieding den „Varoufakis-Effekt“.

Zweifellos sollten sich Investoren heutzutage über politische Risiken Sorgen machen, sogar sehr große. Zu diesen Risiken zählt auch die Fähigkeit von Politikern und Bürokraten, einer Volkswirtschaft ungeahnten Schaden zuzufügen. Aber ebenso müssen Investoren sich vor Analysten in Acht nehmen, die die Unterschiede zwischen Kausalität und Korrelation oder zwischen Insolvenz und Illiquidität entweder nicht kennen oder sich nicht für sie interessieren. Mit anderen Worten, sie sollten sich vor Analysten wie Schmieding in Acht nehmen.

In der Tat ging das unternehmerische Vertrauen einige Monate, nachdem ich Finanzminister geworden war, deutlich zurück. Und einen Monat nach meinem Rücktritt erholte es sich wieder. Die Korrelation ist offensichtlich. Aber was ist mit der Kausalität?

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