Yanis Varoufakis Wiktor Dabkowski/ZUMA Wire

Effet Varoufakis ou effet Troïka ?

ATHENES – En décembre dernier dans son message de fin d'année, Holger Schmieding de la banque d'investissement Berenberg de Hambourg alertait ses clients sur les risques politiques. A titre d'exemple il présentait le graphe ci-dessous qui montre la baisse de confiance des milieux d'affaires en Grèce à la fin du printemps 2015 et sa remontée aprés mon départ du ministére des Finances. Il appelle cela "l'effet Varoufakis".

Il est incontestable que les investisseurs ont raison de beaucoup se préoccuper des risques politiques, notamment de la capacité des responsables politiques et des bureaucrates à porter des dommages incalculables à l'économie. Mais ils doivent aussi se méfier des analystes incapables ou peu motivés pour distinguer une corrélation d'un rapport de cause à effet ou de faire la différence entre insolvabilité et manque de liquidité. Ils feraient donc mieux de se méfier d'analystes comme Schmieding.

En réalité, la confiance des entreprises en Grèce a commencé à dégringoler avant que je ne sois ministre des Finances et elle a recommencé à grimper un mois après ma démission. La corrélation est indéniable, mais y a-t-il pour autant un rapport de cause à effet ?

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