Yanis Varoufakis Wiktor Dabkowski/ZUMA Wire

Varufakisův efekt?

ATÉNY – Holger Schmieding z hamburské investiční banky Berenberg varoval ve své zprávě na konci roku 2015 klienty své firmy, že by se dnes měli obávat politického rizika. Aby to doložil, zveřejnil níže uvedený diagram, který ukazuje, jak se podnikatelská důvěra v Řecku na konci jara 2015 propadla a zotavila se teprve po mém odstoupení z funkce ministra financí. Schmieding se to rozhodl pojmenovat jako „Varufakisův efekt“.

Není pochyb o tom, že investoři by se dnes skutečně měli obávat – velmi obávat – politického rizika včetně schopnosti politiků a úředníků napáchat na ekonomice nevídané škody. Zároveň je však třeba mít obavy z analytiků, kteří nejsou schopni nebo nemají zájem rozlišovat mezi kauzalitou a korelací a mezi insolvencí a nelikviditou. Jinými slovy se investoři musí obávat analytiků, jako je Schmieding.

Pár měsíců poté, co jsem se stal ministrem financí, se podnikatelská důvěra v Řecku skutečně propadla. A měsíc po mé rezignaci se skutečně zvedla. Korelace je tedy zřejmá. Ale co kauzalita?

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