Yanis Varoufakis Wiktor Dabkowski/ZUMA Wire

瓦鲁法基斯效应?

雅典—汉堡贝伦堡(Berenberg)投资银行的霍格尔·施米丁(Holger Schmieding)在其2015年年终总结中警告客户,现在应该担心政治风险。他拿出下面的图表来说明问题:该图标显示希腊商业信心在2015年春崩溃,直到我从财政部长任上辞职后才开始反弹。施米丁将这称为“瓦鲁法基斯效应”。

毫无疑问,投资者应该担心当下的政治风险——非常担心才对,包括政客和官僚给经济造成巨大伤害的能力。但他们还应该担心既没有能力,也没有兴趣区分因果关系和相关性,或者资不抵债和流动性不足的分析师。换句话说,他们应该担心施米丁之流。

希腊商业信心确实在我担任财政部长后几个月发生了崩溃。并且在我辞职后一个月,它就反弹了。相关性显而易见。但其中存在因果关系吗?

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