¿Fillon puede derrotar a Le Pen?

CAMBRIDGE – En las elecciones primarias del partido francés Los Republicanos el domingo, François Fillon derrotó categóricamente al favorito Alain Juppé, con cerca del 67% de los votos.

Hace dos semanas, una victoria aplastante del aparente perdedor parecía imposible. Durante mucho tiempo se había especulado con que Juppé, el alcalde de Bordeaux y ex primer ministro en la presidencia de Jacques Chirac, derrotara al otro favorito, el ex presidente Nicolas Sarkozy, en una segunda vuelta. Por el contrario, Fillon, ex primer ministro en el gobierno de Sarkozy, salió de la primera ronda con un liderazgo dominante: obtuvo el 44% de los votos. El resultado fue humillante para Sarkozy, que recibió un respaldo de poco más del 20% y, efectivamente, puso fin a su carrera política.

Para muchos observadores, la elección invocó el espectro del referendo por el Brexit de junio y la victoria del presidente electo de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, en los primeros días de noviembre. Las encuestas de opinión que ubicaban a Fillon en un tercer puesto distante resultaron equivocadas, en parte porque muchos votantes parecen haber cambiado de opinión días antes de votar. Una vez más, también se les adjudicó a las redes sociales un papel clave. En los últimos debates antes de la elección, Fillon se presentó como una alternativa creíble para Juppé y Sarkozy.

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