玩火

巴黎—7月份以来,金融市场因为寄希望于全球经济和地缘政治前景不会再恶化——即使真的恶化了,各大央行也早已做好了准备通过更多轮的流动性供应和量化宽松力挺经济和市场——而出现了反弹。因此,不但关于经济的好(或好于预期的)消息提振着市场,就连坏消息也被视为好消息,因为这增加了美联储主席伯南克和欧洲央行行长德拉吉等央行救火队员用现金扑灭市场之火的可能性。

但不论利好利空都上扬的市场绝不是稳定的市场。“去风险”模式——即投资者情绪全面转坏——很可能随着经济消息的恶化以及对决策者效率的信心的下降而卷土重来。

在欧元区,乐观情绪随着欧洲央行实行事实上无限制的购买受困国债券的支持决策而泛滥。但这一动作并不能扭转局势;而只能为决策者赢得一些时间来实施解决危机所必须实施的痛苦措施。政策挑战令人沮丧:随着前瞻性财政整合和严格的信用配给制的继续实施,欧元区的衰退正在深化。而随着欧元区银行和公共部门债务日益呈现出两极分化,在建立银行联盟、财政联盟和经济联盟的同时追求重塑增长、外部平衡和竞争力的宏观经济政策会变得特别困难。

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