在岸神话

美国剑桥—2008年金融危机前的十年是全球贸易失衡肆虐的十年,美国存在巨大的双边赤字,特别是于中国。危机爆发以来,这些失衡被部分逆转,美国贸易赤字占GDP之比从2006年5.5%的峰值水平下降到2012年的3.4%,与此同时,中国的盈余占GDP之比从7.7%下降到2.8%。但这是暂时的调整,还是长期再平衡已经开始?

许多人引用的一个再平衡持续进行的例子是此前被转移到新兴市场的美国制造业出现了“在岸化”(onshoring)。比如,苹果公司把新工厂设在了得克萨斯州和亚利桑那州,通用电气也计划将其洗衣机和冰箱生产线转移到肯塔基州。

一些指标表明,在经历了数十年的长期下降后,美国制造业竞争力事实上已开始增加。发展中国家劳动力成本的上升,而在美国则维持相对稳定。事实上,实际有效汇率(REER,经美国制造业单位劳动力成本调整)自2001年以来贬值了30%,自2005年以来贬值了17%,表明新兴市场正在迅速失去其低成本优势,也极大地提振了美国的竞争力。

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