Un caso de mala praxis macroeconómica

NEW HAVEN – A la economía de Estados Unidos le están dando el remedio equivocado. Los responsables políticos diagnosticaron mal la enfermedad y recetaron una medicina experimental, de eficacia no comprobada y que podría tener efectos secundarios graves.

El paciente es el consumidor estadounidense, el mayor del mundo con creces, pero debilitado ahora por los rigores de la peor crisis que ha habido desde la Gran Depresión. Los últimos datos sobre el gasto de los consumidores en Estados Unidos son desalentadores. En el segundo trimestre de 2012, el crecimiento del consumo personal de los estadounidenses (ajustado según la inflación) cayó hasta el 1,5%, y todo indica que en el tercer trimestre seguirá igual de alicaído.

Por si fuera poco, estas cifras son solamente las últimas dentro de una tendencia que ya lleva cuatro años y medio. Entre el primer trimestre de 2008 y el segundo trimestre de 2012 incluido, el crecimiento anualizado promedio del gasto real en consumo llegó apenas al 0,7%, una cifra incluso más extraordinaria si se la compara con el 3,6% de la tendencia previa a la crisis, durante el decenio terminado en 2007.

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