宏观庸医

纽黑文—美国经济的药方开错了。决策者诊错了病,开出了未受过检验的实验性药方,这一药方的潜在副作用巨大。

病人是美国消费者——世界有史以来最大规模的消费者,但现在正陷入大萧条以来最大的不适中。最新的美国消费数据令人极其沮丧。2012年二季度经通胀调整的个人消费支出刚刚被向下修正了1.5%,看起来三季度的数字也是半斤八两。

更糟糕的是,这些数字只是已经存在了四年半的趋势的最新延续。从2008年一季度开始直到2012年二季度,年化真实消费支出增长率只有0.7%——与2007年危机前十年的平均数字3.6%形成鲜明对比。

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