US dollar. lincolnblues/Flickr

Problemas de comunicación en la Fed

CAMBRIDGE – Nada describe mejor la actual política comunicacional de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos que el viejo adagio de que un camello es un caballo diseñado por un comité. Distintos miembros del Comité Federal de Mercados Abiertos (FOMC) de la Fed han calificado la decisión de mantener inalteradas las tasas como “un tema que depende de los datos”, lo cual suena útil hasta que uno se da cuenta de que todos parecen tener una idea diferente al respecto, hasta el punto que “depender de los datos” acaba por significar “el instinto personal de cada uno”.

En otras palabras, la estrategia comunicacional de la Fed es un lío, y ordenarlo es mucho más importante que la oportunidad exacta de la decisión del FOMC de abandonar las tasas de interés cercanas a cero. Después de todo, incluso si la Fed finalmente acaba dando el salto “gigante” desde una tasa efectiva para los fondos federales de un 0,13% (la vigente hoy en día) hasta el 0,25% (que probablemente se adopte pronto), el mercado seguirá queriendo saber cuál es la estrategia que la motiva, y me temo que continuaremos no teniendo la menor idea.

Es justo decir que es complicado decidir qué hacer, y los economistas están profundamente divididos al respecto. El Fondo Monetario Internacional ha entrado al ruedo enérgicamente, aconsejando a la Fed que espere un poco antes de elevarlas. Y sin embargo los bancos centrales de los mismos mercados emergentes que el FMI supuestamente protege dicen lo opuesto, y con la misma fuerza: “Hacedlo ya, que la incertidumbre nos está matando”.

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