US dollar. lincolnblues/Flickr

美联储的沟通危机

发自剑桥——如果要形容美国联储现行沟通政策的话,最适合的说法莫过于“骆驼是一匹由委员会设计的马”这一老话了(形容决策过程导致结果走样)。负责政策制定的联邦公开市场委员会中的多名成员都认为保持基准利率不变的决定“过于依赖数据”。这听起来有点道理,直到你意识到他们每个人对“数据依赖”似乎都有着不同的解读,以至于这一词汇的含义似乎有点“凭直觉”。

换句话说,美联储的沟通策略是个烂摊子,而理顺它远比搞清楚联邦公开市场委员会决定退出近零利率的确切时间更重要。毕竟,即使在美联储最终做出了将有效联邦基金利率从(目前的)0.13%调到(未来)0.25%的“重大“飞跃,市场仍想知道在此之后将是如何走向,而我担心的是大家还将继续蒙在鼓里。

平心而论,决定如何行动是一个非常艰难的选择,对此经济学家们也存在严重分歧。国际货币基金组织也强势介入,要求美联储在提升利率前等待更长的时间。而国际货币基金组织正在保护的新兴市场国家央行行长们也在传达一个同样强烈的信息:赶紧决定吧;不确定性快要害死我们啦!

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