Janet Yellen Brookings Institution/Flickr

Las razones por las que la Reserva Federal enterró el monetarismo

LONDRES – La decisión de la Reserva Federal de aplazar una subida de los tipos de interés no debería haber sorprendido a nadie que haya prestado atención a las observaciones de su Presidenta, Janet Yellen. Dicha decisión no hizo sino confirmar que no es indiferente a la tensión financiera internacional y que su criterio en materia de gestión del riesgo sigue siendo marcadamente favorable a que los tipos permanezcan “más bajos durante más tiempo”. Entonces, ¿por qué los mercados y los medios de comunicación actuaron como si la intervención de la Reserva Federal (o, mejor dicho, la falta de ella) fuera inesperada?

Lo que de verdad dejó perplejos a los mercados no fue la decisión de la Reserva Federal de mantener los tipos de interés cero durante unos meses más, sino la declaración que la acompañaba. La Reserva Federal reveló que en modo alguno le preocupaban los riesgos de una mayor inflación y estaba deseosa de reducir el desempleo por debajo de lo que la mayoría de los economistas consideran su “tasa “natural” de un cinco por ciento, aproximadamente.

Esa relación –entre la inflación y el desempleo– es la que constituye el núcleo de todas las controversias sobre la política monetaria y la banca central y casi todos los modelos económicos modernos, incluidos los utilizados por la Reserva Federal, se basan la teoría monetarista de los tipos de interés encabezada por Milton Friedman en su  discurso presidencial de 1967 ante la Asociación Económica Americana.

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