Janet Yellen Brookings Institution/Flickr

Por que razão a Fed enterrou o monetarismo

LONDRES – A decisão da Reserva Federal dos EUA em atrasar um aumento das taxas de juro não deveria ser surpresa para aqueles que prestaram atenção aos comentários da presidente da Fed, Janet Yellen. A decisão da Fed apenas confirmou que não é indiferente ao stress financeiro internacional e que a sua abordagem de gestão de risco permanece fortemente tendenciosa a favor de “mais baixo por mais tempo”. Então, porque é que os mercados e os meios de comunicação se comportam como se a ação da Fed (ou, mais precisamente, a inação) tivesse sido inesperada?

O que realmente chocou os mercados não foi a decisão da Fed em manter as taxas de juro de valor zero por mais alguns meses, mas sim a declaração que a acompanhou. A Fed revelou que estava totalmente despreocupada em relação aos riscos de uma inflação mais elevada e estava ansiosa por impulsionar o desemprego a ficar abaixo do valor, que a maioria dos economistas considera como a taxa “natural”, dos 5% aproximadamente.

É esta relação - entre a inflação e o desemprego - que está no cerne de todas as controvérsias sobre a política monetária e os bancos centrais. E quase todos os modelos económicos modernos, incluindo aqueles usados pela Fed, baseiam-se na teoria monetarista das taxas de juro explorada por Milton Friedman no seu discurso presidencial, em 1967, na Associação Americana de Economia.

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